December 16, 2013

The Coming Year: What’s Your Prediction

iPhone-predictions
iPhone-predictions
Despite claims from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration that it would be proposing legislation for the electronic cigarette industry by the end of October, it’s rapidly looking like anytime this year will be an achievement.  Most folks are used to regulators taking their sweet time.  So as we rapidly approach the new year (only 15 days away), what do we think 2014 will hold for the electronic cigarette industry and community?

The following is a couple predictions this writer is throwing out there.  So may be proven correct or incorrect sooner or later.  Still, it’s always a fun exercise as we approach that time when writing dates takes an extra moment and sometimes scribbles or White Out.

Will national regulation happen in 2014?

This is the big one when it comes to guessing the future of electronic cigarettes, so why not start with it.  In a word, No.  Regulations will certainly be proposed and debated over, but ultimately even if deem regulations (deciding to treat e-cigs as tobacco cigarettes) pass, it’s likely they won’t officially take effect until sometime in 2015 or 2016.  The more arguments there are to be had over the proposed regulations, the longer it will take for them to pass.  Also, it will quickly become apparent that not all e-cig products are built equally.  This will create barriers to blanket legislation and, again, slow down the process.  One year is not as long as one might think.

What will regulators decide to do with the industry?

To keep this as short and sweet as possible (because there is a lot more to go into), I’ll just say it seems likely flavors are here to stay but online sales might not be.  This is likely to be the compromise between the industry and anti-smoking zealots that refuse to believe kids aren’t going to buy the products online.  Flavors are simply too appealing to the market, provide too much of an advantage over traditional cigarettes, and are pinpointed too often as the source of quit potential in e-cigs to get rid of them without a serious fight on your hands.  Online sales however are much more difficult to nail down with out the analog of online tobacco cigarette sales.  They may not go away completely, but don’t be surprised if you see some heft barriers between online sellers and their consumers.

How will electronic cigarettes change?

As they have been, they will continue to get smaller and lighter.  But the biggest change will be the culmination of the small model battery race with products that last a couple days of regular use without needing to be recharged.  Battery life is the one area small model companies seem to be uniformly struggling with, and yet, most company executives have mentioned hush, hush products coming up that they insinuate will demolish current products.  Battery life seems like the prime target.

What would be your most long-shot prediction for 2014?

I believe analysts will yet again revamp their take on the industry in 2014.  Sales will skyrocket to around $5.5 billion in the U.S. for the year and projections will place electronic cigarettes overtaking tobacco cigarette markets around 2017.

That’s it for now.  Keep an eye out for predictions from some of the other voices here at Ecig Advanced.

Do you have a prediction for 2014?  Let us know in the comments section below.
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new year 2012
new year 2012

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